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California Fray Offering G.O.P. Hope and Peril This time, the White House is keeping an eye on the recall, but not getting involved, party officials said. Other Republicans in the state are concerned that it is too soon for the party to sustain a meaningful rebound. Attention should be focused instead on recruiting strong candidates to challenge Democrats in next year's elections for the state's Legislature and the race against Senator Barbara Boxer, a Democrat who is seeking a third term. Some of these Republicans also suspect that the state party, which is short of cash, might become sidetracked from its fund-raising goals, especially if the recall election is delayed until spring. "People with a lot of experience in the Republican Party and with a long-range view of what's going on have a lot of mixed feelings about the recall," Mr. Rohrabacher said. The biggest challenge for the party leadership, many strategists say, is to prevent a proliferation of candidates and maintain the truce between the party's conservative and moderate wings to avoid splitting the Republican vote. Under state law, a recall ballot would pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be removed, and, second, if so, who should replace him? There is no restriction on how many candidates can place their names in contention, meaning the ballot could generate a free-for-all, without some party discipline. So far, among Republicans, only Mr. Issa has officially announced his intention to run. But another conservative, Mr. Simon, who lost to Mr. Davis by five percentage points in November, has expressed interest. Speculation has also extended to some from the party's moderate wing, like Mr. Schwarzenegger and Mr. Riordan, the object of a fierce advertising attack by Mr. Davis in last year's Republican primary. Though the party's moderates have often had trouble winning primaries, the recall ballot offers them a direct shot at a statewide general election, which many analysts believe would increase their chances of winning because of their appeal to non-Republicans. Early opinion polls show Mr. Riordan and Mr. Schwarzenegger as the most popular. Kenneth L. Khachigian, a Republican strategist who is advising Mr. Issa, said the party's old divisions could quickly resurface if a Republican failed to win the governorship in a recall election. He also suggested that Republican candidates would not be averse to "drawing distinctions" among themselves in a recall campaign, particularly if Mr. Schwarzenegger, a largely unknown political entity, entered the fray. "There is a belief that if he gets in nobody will touch him," Mr. Khachigian said. "I say, you don't know the California political press corps. I don't think I will have to do a whole lot." Mr. Sundheim, the party chairman, has suggested that the party unite behind a single candidate, but the idea has received little support. "People are coming up, anecdotally, saying, `I don't care who it is, we have to come together,' Mr. Sundheim said, "but that is only just starting. I think the odds are against us being able to agree on one candidate." Perhaps an even greater worry for Republicans is that if Mr. Davis looks too vulnerable, Democrats might desert him and put up a popular contender of their own, like Senator Dianne Feinstein. That way, strategists say, Democrats could emerge from the recall more triumphant than ever. Ms. Feinstein has said she does not intend to run, and Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said in Los Angeles this week that no Democrats would run to replace Mr. Davis. But many Republicans expect the Democratic position to soften if polls continue to show Mr. Davis losing. |
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